NFL Schedule Analysis - Handicapping the League
by Michael Lambourne
August 10, 2010
There are several things to look for when analyzing a team schedule. Here is a list of important considerations:
1. Revenge Game or Opponent Revenge Game
Since there is so much pride in the game of football in addition to the parity of the NFL, “revenge” becomes an important factor. This is especially present in inter-division battles. If one team has had success recently against another team, you can be assured there is a certain degree of revenge on the mind of the struggling team.
2. West Coast Team Traveling East (-Body Clock)
West coast teams traveling east for an early start game is also a very important consideration. Be careful of these situations, as the “body clock” and game day routine of all the players on the traveling team will be significantly thrown off.
3. Multiple Road Games in Consecutive Weeks
A long stretch of games on the road and a lot of travel can begin to have an impact on performance. Look to fade a team at the end of a brutal travel schedule in consecutive weeks. Example: 5 road games in 7 weeks.
4. +Days to Prepare (Following Bye or Thu/Sat Game)
Teams coming off a bye have a big advantage in preparation and rest time. Even just an extra couple days to rest and prepare leads to a significant advantage. Make sure you know if a team has an extra couple of days to prepare after playing either a Thursday or Saturday game late in the season.
5. -Days to Prepare (Following MNF the Previous Week)
Extra preparation time is always a good thing, but less days to prepare is certainly a bad thing. Beware of teams coming off a Monday night game the previous week. They had a short week, especially if the game was on the road.
6. Week Before or After Big Division Rivalry Game
No matter how much coaches and players say they don’t look ahead to big games, all teams do. The division games are so important in the NFL standings that it is often the case that teams save the best game plans and best effort for the most important division games. Therefore, the week before a big game is a prime spot for a letdown. Also take not of teams coming off a very emotional game. It can often create a hangover effect the following week.
7. Coaching Changes with Immediate Inside Info
Coaching changes are rampant in the NFL. There is always a lot of turnover in coaching staffs from year to year. This can be very important information if a certain assistant coach has immediate inside information about a team he was with the previous year, but now is playing against.
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This preseason preparation is the just the beginning of our analysis. The next steps, and upcoming blogs, will contain the information critical to the fundamental analysis used to analyze individual match-ups. Then, we will delve into the behavioral economic principles used to gauge public perception of the NFL marketplace which is essential to identifying where the true value lies.
Here is an example of the Arizona Cardinals upcoming schedule. Our members get an annotated schedule likes this for every NFL team. Stay tuned – Much more useful info to come!
| ARIZONA Cardinals (9-7 ATS) (11-5 O/U) |
| |||
| WK | DATE | OPPONENT | TIME (ET) |
|
| 1 | Sun, Sep 12 | at St. Louis | 4:15 PM | ORR |
| 2 | Sun, Sep 19 | at Atlanta | 1:00 PM | -bc |
| 3 | Sun, Sep 26 | Oakland | 4:15 PM |
|
| 4 | Sun, Oct 3 | at San Diego | 4:15 PM | 3r4 |
| 5 | Sun, Oct 10 | New Orleans | 4:05 PM | R |
| 6 |
|
|
|
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| 7 | Sun, Oct 24 | at Seattle | 4:05 PM | off bye, ORR |
| 8 | Sun, Oct 31 | Tampa Bay | 4:15 PM |
|
| 9 | Sun, Nov 7 | at Minnesota | 1:00 PM | OR |
| 10 | Sun, Nov 14 | Seattle | 4:15 PM | ORRR? |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 21 | at Kansas City | 1:00 PM |
|
| 12 | Mon, Nov 29 | San Francisco | 8:30 PM | RR |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 5 | St. Louis | 4:15 PM | -day, ORRR? |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 12 | Denver | 4:15 PM |
|
| 15 | Sun, Dec 19 | at Carolina | 1:00 PM | -bc |
| 16 | Sat, Dec 25 | Dallas | 7:30 PM |
|
| 17 | Sun, Jan 2 | at San Francisco | 4:15 PM | +day, RRR? |
KEY:
R = Revenge Game
RR = Double Revenge Game
OR = Opponent Revenge Game
-day = Short Week to Prepare
+day = Extra Time to Prepare
3r4 = 3rd Road Game in 4 Weeks
-bc = Traveling East for Early Start
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