ZoneBlitz: Who are a couple under the radar players set for breakout seasons in 2010 and who are a couple guys you think might be busts this year?
Fantasy Football Riches: A couple players flying under the radar that we are high on include: Ahmad Bradshaw, Jahvid Best, Arian Foster, Michael Crabtree, Hakeem Nicks, Malcom Floyd, Jabar Gaffney, and Mathew Stafford.
Some players we are avoiding include Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Cedric Benson, Steven Jackson
ZoneBlitz: Which rookies will you trust to be on your teams?
Fantasy Football Riches: We absolutely love the potential of Jahvid Best. I really like what the Lions have done with their offense and I think they are going to surprise a ton of people this year. Ryan Mathews is the one getting all the publicity right now, and rightly so, he is a stud. However, with his ADP so high we really don’t trust him at such a high cost (Currently drafted 16th overall on average).
ZoneBlitz: What are one or two tips less successful fantasy players should keep in mind?
Fantasy Football Riches: Make sure you fully understand your leagues scoring structure and it afffects the relative value of players (More about this our eBook here). Also - Focus the majority of your attention (and pre-draft studies) on your middle and late round draft picks. League championships are won in these later rounds, not just exclusively with your top picks. Grab stable players you can count on early, and capture a lot of burst potential late.
ZoneBlitz: Many say the traditional fantasy football strategy of drafting running backs first is over. Do you agree? Why or why not?
Fantasy Football Riches: Absolutely. The running back position has an incredible amount of turnover from year to year. That is a statistical fact and the numbers are austounding (More on this subject in our eBook, “The Expert Guide to Profitable Fantasy Football”) You can only count on a few of the top RB’s to consistently produce and after those first few guys are gone, it becomes a crapshoot. It becomes too expensive to spend multiple picks on early RBs. There is incredible value every year in mid-late round running backs. In fact, Fantasy Football Riches specializes on building an optimal draft strategy based on league structure (ie. scoring, number of teams, roster specs, etc) and your draft position with an emphasis on capturing enormous value with each and every draft pick that work together with your other picks to maximize expected value.
ZoneBlitz: With K. Warner retired and M. Leinart not looking good in the preseason, where is good value for Larry Fitzgerald?
Fantasy Football Riches: I am originally from Arizona and I am admittedly a HUGE Fitzgerald fan. I think he is the best overall WR in the game right now. With that said however, I am likely not drafting him on ANY of my teams this year. Why? Matt Leinart. I feel Leinart hurts his value ENORMOUSLY. Not only will Matt hurt Larry’s statistics, he is likely to keep getting him hurt. Ever since entering the league, Matt’s weak arm and poor decision making has constantly been hanging Larry out to dry. Leinart is better suited for “The Hills” than the NFL. Thankfully, he will be back in Southern California soon enough, as Derek Anderson may have already bumped him down the depth charts going into their 3rd preseason game.
ZoneBlitz: Bret Favre is back but the rest of the offense is in disarray. Where does he rank on your board and how are other Vikings affected?
Fantasy Football Riches: We are not on the Favre bandwagon this year either. I think his ankle injury is more of a concern than people realize. His incredible stats last year were an aberration and look for a case of regression to the mean this season. I have both Matthew Stafford and Alex Smith finishing the season with more fantasy points. Adrian Peterson always has incredible value and we are a fan of Percy Harvin however, especially in leagues that reward return yards.
ZoneBlitz: With several tight ends emerging, who are you targeting at that position and at what point in drafts?
Fantasy Football Riches: Tight ends are revolutionizing the way football is played and I believe it will ultimately change the way it is coached. More specifically, I think coaches will finally “give in” and “see the light” when it comes to 4th down conversions. The statistical analysis community has been calling for more 4th down conversion attempts for years, with rigorous mathematical proof to back them up. However, NFL coaches have been slow to implement these findings (presumably due to a lack of job security). But now with these freak, super-athlete tight ends, coaches have an opportunity to create enormous mismatches specifically for these key 4th down plays. Look for Bill Belichick and the Pats to lead the trend. Bill has already proved willing to buck conventional wisdom (recall 4th and 2 vs Indy) and guess what… they drafted not one, but TWO potential game breaking tight ends in this year’s draft.
From a fantasy perspective, the specific player I really like this year is Oakland’s Zach Miller. A fellow Arizona State Sun Devil, Zach is primed for a breakout season now that he has a stable QB. He is a steal late in drafts this year.
ZoneBlitz: Have you seen anything surprising in early drafts you’ve been monitoring?
Fantasy Football Riches: I am shocked Arian Foster is still being drafted so late. This guy is the clear #1 on a potent offense. Draft him! Visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com for more advanced strategy and learn how to build an optimal fantasy draft this year!
