NFL Football: Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial statements and health, its management and competitive advantages, and its competitors and markets. When applied to NFL football, it focuses on the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of a team (example: Run Defense and Passing Efficiency). It also takes into consideration the health of the team from a physical standpoint, the coaching staff, and certain competitive advantages against specific opponents.

This is the X’s and O’s broken down to identify the exploitable situations. For example, one of the most important, yet largely ignored pieces of information is the injury status of lineman. The Quarterbacks, Running backs, and Receivers get all the publicity, but the linemen largely determine the overall success of a football team. An injury to a key offensive tackle can absolutely cripple an entire offense if the backup is sub-par (which is often the case). The defensive lineman can be equally important to a team. For instance, in the 3-4 defensive schemes, a large, space-eating nose tackle is imperative. If a team is missing this particular player and the backup is substantially worse, a trickledown effect will take place causing enormous problems for this defense.

Fantasy Football Riches attempts to keep a detailed view into each team from a fundamental analysis standpoint. Everything from the injury reports for key “under-the-radar” players, to potential competitive advantages over specific opponents down the road. Here is an example for the Arizona Cardinals going into the season.

Assessment:

Offense (Run): Moving to a significantly more run-heavy offense. Beanie Wells coming in strong for training camp and the O-Line is taking steps in the right direction. Questionable depth on the line however.

Offense (Pass): Huge question is Matt Leinart. Offense not running many 4-wide sets in training camp may be a sign of things to come. WR’s still very strong however lead by Fitzgerald alongside Steve Breston and Early Doucet.

Defense (Run): 3-4 Hybrid system. Should be strong when DT Dan Williams and LB Hayes are healthy. Might struggle without them.

Defense (Pass): Solid DB’s. Adrian Wilson, DRC, Kerry Rhodes, etc = strong potential secondary. Should have a good overall defense when the run stoppers are healthy.


TidBits (Things to watch, Considerations, etc)

• *KEY* Going to a much more "run-first" style
• Great Veteran Leadership at key positions (except QB)
• Leinart’s competence?
• How will all the offseason losses/new additions pan out: Jerry Porter/Kerry Rhodes have anything left?
• Strong DB’s
• DT Dan Williams: Whisenhunt now has the massive nose tackle that he has really needed in order to employ a true 3-4 scheme in Arizona
• Loss of LB Hayes important for interior run stop. Big concer
• Keep an eye on Beanie Wells (RB) and Early Doucet (WR) this season.
• Offense was overvalued last year (O/U: 5-11): Even more Defense this year?
• Soft early schedule: Beware of public perception. Might struggle ATS early, then go on a tear mid-season when 3-4 scheme and Leinart start clicking or are undervalued

For a detailed report like this on every NFL team visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com