What if you knew you could get a sleeper RB in the 6th or 7th round that would vastly outperform his draft position and produce comparable to most 2nd round RB’s. It would make sense to structure your draft with a plan centered on this player. What if also, you identified an underrated Quarterback that you could draft in the 7th-10th rounds that would also produce similar numbers to the top round QB’s? You would now know the best use of your top draft picks in attempt to compile the most dominate combination of value players.
To do this, it all starts by identifying key “sleeper” players you will target in the middle rounds of your draft. After you identify these players, only then do you fill in your top players to target in the beginning of the draft. You will know which positions you can “wait” for since you have a strong and productive player up your sleeve at that position.
That is what Fantasy Football Riches does. We have identified the key players that will show up on MANY championship fantasy teams; And these are not players being drafted in the first few rounds! Our TARGET LIST is comprised of mid-round draft picks that will vastly out-perform their ADP and are loaded with burst-potential to become top 10 players at their position.
Therefore – We know going into a fantasy draft, which players are the most beneficial to draft with our top picks to combine with our sleeper selections. This is also very dependent on your draft position. A team drafting from the #2 slot will have a much different optimal draft plan than a team in the #9 slot.
This is unquestionably a very strong year for Quarterbacks. The position is very deep, with a lot of big names and star power at the top. However, because of the publicity and notoriety the top QB’s get, they will often be overvalued from a fantasy perspective. You can read much more about this theory and the statistical analysis behind this in the recently released eBook, The Expert Guide to Profitable Fantasy Football available at www.FantasyFootballRiches.com.
Here are my top 10 Quarterbacks this year in terms of point totals, and then we will discuss who presents value for your fantasy team, and who you will likely have to overpay for.
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Peyton Manning
3. Drew Brees
4. Tom Brady
5. Tony Romo
6. Matt Schaub
7. Jay Cutler
8. Carson Palmer
9. Kevin Kolb
10. Phillip Rivers
(A detailed breakdown of each players expected statistics is available to RED ZONE subscribers at www.FantasyFootballRiches.com)
It will be tempting to take a top QB this year, but I would recommend against it. Rodgers, Manning, and Brees will likely all have strong seasons, but you will have to pay a high price to get them (in the form of high draft picks).
Three guys in particular stand out at the tail end of the top 10: Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, and Kevin Kolb. All three present terrific value in fantasy leagues because you can draft them in the middle rounds (7-10). This allows you to target the best WR and RB talent at the top of the draft, while other managers are reaching for the big-name QB. At the end of the year, the production from these mid round QB’s will likely be very similar to those of the big-names (so long as everyone stays healthy). However, your top WR and RB’s are likely to VASTLY outperform their second and third tier WR and RB’s. That is how consistent fantasy football championships are won - Finding value in the draft at each individual position.
For more information on how to construct an optimal draft this year by finding PHENOMENAL value at each position, visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com ASAP!
There might not be anything more important to the success of a running back than his offensive line. The RB always gets the credit, but the line is often times the true reason for the success. Therefore, opportunities exist to find sleeper RB’s for your fantasy team that currently do not have a “big” name, but are set to run behind a quality O-line.
In attempt to identify a few key candidates, here were the top 5 best offensive lines in football last season (as determined by Football Outsiders innovative statistic “Adjusted Line Yards” you can find here)
1.Miami
2.New Orleans
3.Dallas
4.Baltimore
5.New England
In addition, when looking at it from the opposite direction, it is very difficult for a running back to succeed behind a poor offensive line. Here were the bottom 5 O-lines from the past season:
28.St. Louis
29.Detroit
30.Kansas City
31.Tampa Bay
32.San Francisco
To transition these statistics from last season into predictions for this season is challenging however since teams area able to add/subtract players from year to year. For instance, although the 49ers ranked at the bottom of this statistic last year, they added 2 first round offensive lineman, who by all accounts will be able to step in and contribute immediately. This statistic also does not account for RBs who contribute in the passing game. For instance, while Detroit and Kansas City statistically do not run the ball that well, their running backs this season (Jahvid Best and Jamaal Charles) are very good receivers out of the backfield which therefore increases their fantasy value.
For a detailed breakdown on each NFL offensive line going into the season as well as the sleeper RB’s that will be running behind them visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com and subscribe to the RED ZONE.
The fantasy football pick of the year in 2009? Ray Rice. Why does he get the pick of the year over Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson or anyone else? ADP (Average Draft Position). Rice was available in most leagues last year in about the 6th or 7th round and maybe even later. That is what we call a steal; 1st round production from a mid-round selection. More importantly, that is what consistent dominance in fantasy football requires, being able to identify where the value lies in your upcoming drafts. Matt Schaub was also drafted around the 6th round last year. It is no surprise that an astounding number of teams that won championships last year had these two players on it. The question becomes, who are the KEY PLAYERS this season, currently being drafted in the middle rounds.
All the signs pointed to Rice having a monster season last year. There are similar signs right now for certain other “under-the-radar” players. You need these players on your team. Make ALL your draft picks count for your team and give yourself the best chance at winning the title. Who will be this year’s Ray Rice? We have a list of 5 players, currently being drafted in the 5th-12th rounds that will ENORMOUSLY outperform their draft position. One of them is likely to be the Ray Rice of this season and another, the Matt Schaub. You need to get these guys on your roster. The burst-potential is enormous this year and you should structure your team in order to best take advantage of it. Fantasy Football Riches will show you how. Profit this year from fantasy football.
The third and final part of our analysis is the technical side. Fist was Schedule Analysis, followed by Fundamental Analysis. This includes facets of behavioral economics in regards to public perception and biases. Line movement and percentages play a significant role in this type of analysis as well.
"Investors and researchers have disputed the efficient-market hypothesis both empirically and theoretically. Behavioral economists attribute the imperfections in financial markets to a combination of cognitive biases such as overconfidence, overreaction, representative bias, information bias, and various other predictable human errors in reasoning and information processing. These errors in reasoning lead most investors to avoid value stocks and buy growth stocks at expensive prices, which allow those who reason correctly to profit from bargains in neglected value stocks and the overreacted selling of growth stocks."
Does this have an application to NFL football? Absolutely.
The spreads of an NFL game are similar to the price of the stock. Many variables are considered by the lines-makers when setting a line, and public perception is a very big factor.People have favorite teams they like to bet on. A team coming off a great performance on Monday Night Football the previous week, for instance, will likely be a fashionable bet the next week. However, this is a flawed and potentially dangerous line of thinking.
"Speculative economic bubbles are an obvious anomaly, in that the market often appears to be driven by buyers operating on irrational exuberance, who take little notice of underlying value. These bubbles are typically followed by an overreaction of frantic selling, allowing shrewd investors to buy stocks at bargain prices. Rational investors have difficulty profiting by shorting irrational bubbles because, as John Maynard Keynes commented, "Markets can remain irrational far longer than you or I can remain solvent” Sudden market crashes as happened on Black Monday in 1987 are mysterious from the perspective of efficient markets, but allowed as a rare statistical event under the Weak-form of EMH."
The lines makers know who the favorite pubic teams are. Therefore, there will always be a “premium” charged to those teams. The value lies in the teams that the majority of people are overreacting from a bad performance.
Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial statements and health, its management and competitive advantages, and its competitors and markets. When applied to NFL football, it focuses on the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of a team (example: Run Defense and Passing Efficiency). It also takes into consideration the health of the team from a physical standpoint, the coaching staff, and certain competitive advantages against specific opponents.
This is the X’s and O’s broken down to identify the exploitable situations. For example, one of the most important, yet largely ignored pieces of information is the injury status of lineman. The Quarterbacks, Running backs, and Receivers get all the publicity, but the linemen largely determine the overall success of a football team. An injury to a key offensive tackle can absolutely cripple an entire offense if the backup is sub-par (which is often the case). The defensive lineman can be equally important to a team. For instance, in the 3-4 defensive schemes, a large, space-eating nose tackle is imperative. If a team is missing this particular player and the backup is substantially worse, a trickledown effect will take place causing enormous problems for this defense.
Fantasy Football Riches attempts to keep a detailed view into each team from a fundamental analysis standpoint. Everything from the injury reports for key “under-the-radar” players, to potential competitive advantages over specific opponents down the road. Here is an example for the Arizona Cardinals going into the season.
Assessment:
Offense (Run): Moving to a significantly more run-heavy offense. Beanie Wells coming in strong for training camp and the O-Line is taking steps in the right direction. Questionable depth on the line however.
Offense (Pass): Huge question is Matt Leinart. Offense not running many 4-wide sets in training camp may be a sign of things to come. WR’s still very strong however lead by Fitzgerald alongside Steve Breston and Early Doucet.
Defense (Run): 3-4 Hybrid system. Should be strong when DT Dan Williams and LB Hayes are healthy. Might struggle without them.
Defense (Pass): Solid DB’s. Adrian Wilson, DRC, Kerry Rhodes, etc = strong potential secondary. Should have a good overall defense when the run stoppers are healthy.
TidBits (Things to watch, Considerations, etc)
*KEY* Going to a much more "run-first" style
Great Veteran Leadership at key positions (except QB)
Leinart’s competence?
How will all the offseason losses/new additions pan out: Jerry Porter/Kerry Rhodes have anything left?
Strong DB’s
DT Dan Williams: Whisenhunt now has the massive nose tackle that he has really needed in order to employ a true 3-4 scheme in Arizona
Loss of LB Hayes important for interior run stop. Big concer
Keep an eye on Beanie Wells (RB) and Early Doucet (WR) this season.
Offense was overvalued last year (O/U: 5-11): Even more Defense this year?
Soft early schedule: Beware of public perception. Might struggle ATS early, then go on a tear mid-season when 3-4 scheme and Leinart start clicking or are undervalued
There are several things to look for when analyzing a team schedule. Here is a list of important considerations:
1.Revenge Game or Opponent Revenge Game
Since there is so much pride in the game of football in addition to the parity of the NFL, “revenge” becomes an important factor. This is especially present in inter-division battles. If one team has had success recently against another team, you can be assured there is a certain degree of revenge on the mind of the struggling team.
2.West Coast Team Traveling East (-Body Clock)
West coast teams traveling east for an early start game is also a very important consideration. Be careful of these situations, as the “body clock” and game day routine of all the players on the traveling team will be significantly thrown off.
3.Multiple Road Games in Consecutive Weeks
A long stretch of games on the road and a lot of travel can begin to have an impact on performance. Look to fade a team at the end of a brutal travel schedule in consecutive weeks. Example:5 road games in 7 weeks.
4.+Days to Prepare (Following Bye or Thu/Sat Game)
Teams coming off a bye have a big advantage in preparation and rest time. Even just an extra couple days to rest and prepare leads to a significant advantage. Make sure you know if a team has an extra couple of days to prepare after playing either a Thursday or Saturday game late in the season.
5.-Days to Prepare (Following MNF the Previous Week)
Extra preparation time is always a good thing, but less days to prepare is certainly a bad thing. Beware of teams coming off a Monday night game the previous week. They had a short week, especially if the game was on the road.
6.Week Before or After Big Division Rivalry Game
No matter how much coaches and players say they don’t look ahead to big games, all teams do. The division games are so important in the NFL standings that it is often the case that teams save the best game plans and best effort for the most important division games. Therefore, the week before a big game is a prime spot for a letdown. Also take not of teams coming off a very emotional game. It can often create a hangover effect the following week.
7.Coaching Changes with Immediate Inside Info
Coaching changes are rampant in the NFL. There is always a lot of turnover in coaching staffs from year to year. This can be very important information if a certain assistant coach has immediate inside information about a team he was with the previous year, but now is playing against.
"RED ZONE" Exclusive & Innovative Research and Information Club on Advanced Fantasy Football Strategy and NFL Handicapping – Available only at www.FantasyFootballRiches.com
This preseason preparation is the just the beginning of our analysis. The next steps, and upcoming blogs, will contain the information critical to the fundamental analysis used to analyze individual match-ups. Then, we will delve into the behavioral economic principles used to gauge public perception of the NFL marketplace which is essential to identifying where the true value lies.
Here is an example of the Arizona Cardinals upcoming schedule. Our members get an annotated schedule likes this for every NFL team. Stay tuned – Much more useful info to come!
