Fantasy Football Draft Strategy - Value Based Drafting

Value-based drafting is a really valuable approach to understand. Applying these strategies will absolutely set you apart from other managers in your league.

Fundamental Point: The worth of a player is NOT identified by the amount of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position.

The main mission of fantasy football IS NOT to score a ton of points. You can score a ton of points and still find yourself on the losing end. The primary plan is to outscore your opponent by opting for players who outperform THEIR PEERS at that position (i. e. WR vs. WR). Do not forget, we are limited by the starting positions required to fill to our starting lineup, and that will shape our best possible approach. Otherwise, we would most likely draft all quarterbacks given that they typically score the most points. Our team of specific positions will contend in opposition to another team of the same specific positions. Therefore our optimal strategy will be to build a starting roster with the strongest scoring players at each individual position. That seems self evident, however there are several significant errors that a lot of people make. 

This is best thought of as a series of individual matchups, position by position. This idea is best articulated using a hypothetical situation. Let’s suggest the game is 1-on-1 (head-to-head) with a starting roster of 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR and 1 PK. In a one game matchup, your QB outscores his QB 22 to 20 (+2 points). You're up 2. Your RB is outscored by his RB 5 to 10 (-5 points). Now you're down by 3. Your WR outscores his WR 20 to 5 (+15 points). Now you're back up by 12. Your kicker outscores his kicker 21 to 20 (+1 points) This puts you up 13. You win the matchup 68 to 55.

Here is the point of this illustration - If you and your opponent previously mentioned were to put all 8 players back into the draft and, knowing what you know at this time about what they will each score, who might you draft first? The QB who scored the most points? No, because the other QB scores 20, so 2 points fewer is not really big deal. The kicker who scores 21? Obviously not, since the alternate kicker is only 1 point behind him with 20 points of his own! The WR is the no-brainer pick in this spot seeing that he WIDELY outperforms his opposition WR. In fact, after this first choice, the game is essentially finished. It does not matter who you pick the entire remainder of the draft, you are going to win. This is just an example but is INCREDIBLY practical for your league. Remember, the objective is not to pick up the highest scoring players irrespective of position. The objective is to secure the players who are going to outscore the alternative players at their position by the largest amount of points.

Let’s look at another more practical illustration. For arguments sake, let’s suppose that we have near perfect foresight and learn the likely range of what all players are going to score for the season (This is best accomplished with a good set of player projections at the beginning of the season). Your opponent drafts a QB early that you think will score about 215 points. You feel that you can draft a QB later in the draft that will score about 200 points, so you elect to draft a TE that will score about 80 points instead. When you challenger gets around to it, he drafts a TE that will score about 40 points in the same round as you are drafting your QB. Let’s study what occured here. When all is said and done, he has a QB that out produces yours by 15 points, but you have a TE that beats his by 40 points! Many people find this challenging to believe: How could a TE that scores 80 points be more vital than a QB that scores 200?! Just like in the NFL, fantasy football is a team game. The QB owner will have to draft a TE to go with his high scoring QB, but we will also get to draft a solid QB to go along with our game breaker TE. The benefit arrives due to the fact we are more likely to locate a prosperous QB than he is to find an equally advantageous TE. This case is just for two starting positions. The aim is to develop this type of edge all over the board of starting roster positions. As you can see, this is the technique to put together a very strong team that no opponent will wish to experience!

This also points out why it is almost always best to put it off until the later rounds to draft a kicker. Regardless of the reality that kickers generally lead the NFL in points scored, they have very little worth in fantasy football simply because all the other kickers will also produce similar big numbers. This even holds correct a large number of situations for the quarterback position in fantasy football (Hint: A lot of players do not fully grasp this and you now have a massive advantage). In the past, no one understood if a QB throwing for 20 TDs / 3, 000 yards was more worthwhile than a RB scoring 10 TDs / 1, 000 yards or a WR posting 7 TDs / 1, 100 yards. Now you will be equipped to figure it out. This will be the basis of our draft strategy so make certain you fully understand this approach prior to moving on.

So the question becomes: Which positions become the most valuable and have the major discrepancies from top to bottom? Now we are getting somewhere!

If you are interested in additional fantasy football strategy, please check out Fantasy Football Riches at http://www.fantasyfootballriches.com.

How to Build a Dominate Fantasy Football Team - Complete Strategy Guide

This is one of the most interesting areas of fantasy football strategy, deciding upon the very best framework for your team based upon on where you believe the value to be in your draft. 

You must have a good awareness of average draft position (ADP), and how it is able to combine with your player projections from your mock drafts at this point. Of course the complexity of this optimum construction are subject to change from season to season since the pockets of value will always be fluctuating. Still, we have a lot of very potent foundational principles that perform reliably every year. Like lots of challenges, this is a blend of science and art.

The draft is the single most significant day of your fantasy football season. You can either start the season strong with a fantastic performance on draft day, or dig yourself a hole that may well take half the season to dig out of. We desire to just lay the hammer early and often.

The basis of our strategy centers around a “Tag-Team” technique. As you more than likely know, a recent phenomena in the NFL (to the dismay of a large number of fantasy owners) is the running-back-by-committee. This can be tracked back throughout the history of the game, but recently has been brought back into the mainstream by former USC coach Pete Carroll’s usage of Reggie Bush and LenDale White all through their time with the Trojans. These two players were the suitable mixture of acceleration and strength. They were independently implemented in instances they were most probable to be successful. We are going to take on this chunk of knowledge and use it to our fantasy team. We will look to utilize two players as a pairing to create a really rewarding one starting position on your roster.

Do not forget the Value-Based Drafting techniques. What if we are ın a position to simply wait on a QB and preferably instead draft two quarterbacks in the middle to later rounds that experience extremely advantageous combined schedules and together with each other will in reality outperform the top QB in that case? This arises every year and is a highly workable.

KEY INSIGHT: The plan of this strategy is to “free up” your top picks to really maximize their worth using VBD techniques. We can do this by looking for several positions that we can simply wait for and still acquire combos of quality players later in the draft that “fit” together with each other well.

By using this strategy, you will get the most benefit achievable out of each individual pick in the draft. Every selection will have a reason and function. In other words, the whole will be a good deal greater than the sum of the parts.

When other managers are reaching for kickers and defenses mainly because they don’t know who else to select, you will be putting together a compelling team that will work alongside one another to maximize consistency, burst-potential, and depth. In addition to the QB position, you can rather comfortably use a tag-team for your starting RB2, WR3, DEF, and maybe even TE. We deliver our RED ZONE subscribers our top recommendations at each and every position.

Using this approach as the cornerstone of our strategy, let’s take a position-by-position look at the “best practice” concepts for building a complete team.

KEY INSIGHT: The cornerstone of our strategy centers around a “Tag-Team” methodology. We look to use two players as a combo to develop a rather rewarding one starting position on your roster.

Quarterback

It is very {alluring to go for a top QB like Tom Brady or Michael Vick as your #1 or #2 pick since QBs frequently score a bunch of points. Refuse this lure if you can however, considering this QUITE OFTEN ends up being a terrible option when it really counts at the end of the year. The rationale once again is because VALUE. It is much less difficult to come across excellent QBs in the middle to late rounds than it is to acquire an similarly rewarding running backs and receivers at that time.

A good model of a mid-round STEAL at QB this season (2011) is Mathew Stafford (Rd 8). Nobody has ever questioned the guy’s ability, the sole reason he dropped this significantly in fantasy drafts were injury fears. His situation was ideal however, with impressive tools around him at wide receiver, running back, and tight end. It was just a matter of remaining injury free for an entire season. This is the type of situation MOST SUITABLE for our fantasy football strategy. We can combine Stafford with a second QB in a decent situation, rendering us two shots at uncovering a terrific value, and at the same time being in a position to pick out the most beneficial matchup’s week-to-week. There are frequently QB’s around the middle of the projected group that elevate to the top JUST ABOUT EVERY SINGLE year. Michael Vick was not on anyone’s roster to begin the season last year, and ended as a top QB. Cam Newton is experiencing a comparable meteoritic climb to the top of fantasy QB value boards, and is a player you could have added to your team for free in the first couple weeks of the season. It is simply just bad business to ever use a high draft pick on a quarterback in fantasy football, and quite possibly the most prevalent error made by novice players.

The key is searching for the cases that are most fresh for achieving success. For a QB, this would definitely mean a good set of receivers and tight end, an ample running game with a good pass catching RB, and a high quality pass-blocking offensive line.

Dependant on the roster size in your league, it could possibly even be favorable to draft a 3rd QB alternative. While we might not always encourage this, we are aware not to rule it out either. If there is a run on middle round QB’s and you do not get your ideally suited picks (constantly have backup tag-team as part of your research just in case), drafting a third option might not be the worst idea. Plus, if you are in a 12 team league, this will significantly constrain the QB possibilities other managers have in case their star gets injured or underperforms. For this rationale, introducing a 3rd QB to your roster can be a strategy tactic as well.

KEY INSIGHT: We frequently encourage you proceed with a 2 man committee of mid-tier QBs with excellent combined schedules (one of them always confronting a weak(er) opponent) as compared to a top QB in the beginning rounds).

Running Backs

This is still the most important concept in fantasy football dominance: You NEED to have running backs you can count on to be the anchors of your team. They are STILL the most valuable position in fantasy football, and the position that you can most confidently rely on every week. It’s easy for a defense to take away an elite wide receiver by double teaming him (representing a tremendous hazard to your fantasy team, certainly if he is assumed to be one of your top players). It is much more complex for a defense to fully shut down a duel threat running back..And that final part is the key: DUAL THREAT. Your top draft picks should almost ALWAYS be the top running backs that are not primarily great rushers, but that additionally see a large amount of targets in the passing game. This is by far the dominate strategy in fantasy football, most definitely in a PPR league (Point Per Reception) considering the fact that you boost your week-to-week reliability. With so many NFL teams moving to a running back by committee, there are fewer and fewer “true #1” RBs nowadays. That is why it is a TREMENDOUS value to the fantasy teams that own them. Fantasy teams without a reliable running back like this to count on run the risk of putting up scores of 0-7, which positively OBLITERATE your possibilities of winning. In 2011, the very clear examples are Ray Rice, Arian Foster, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Jahvid Best, Ryan Mathews, and Darren McFadden. Although it has become a lot more popular to go for WRs and QBs early, in most scenarios this is a considerable misstep, NOTABLY a QB. They simply just do not provide you with an acceptable benefit over QBs you can acquire later in the draft, and even on the waiver wire each week. Drafting a WR in the early rounds is chancy considering the fact that they are A GOOD DEAL less dependable than the top RBs that also catch passes.

I also am convinced that you can NEVER have too many running backs on your fantasy team. It is SUBSTANTIALLY better to be overloaded with depth at RB given that there are so many injuries, you will always be safe. In addition, it is much easier to trade running backs after a few good weeks for an elite player at a different position, if your league facilitates trades and you find it positive for your team. You have so many possibilities as well as insurance if you own strong depth at RB.

In addition to drafting the quality running backs early, it’s also NECESSARY to keep an eye on the waiver wire running backs that have the capability to develop into big time producers. This is the place our research comes in handy. If you can recognise players who are under the media radar but are playing in cases where success is highly possible, that is like striking the jackpot. This will be in the form of backup running backs that are pushed into a starting role when the starting RB gets hurt. A few samples from the 2009-2010 season consist of Jamaal Charles and Rashard Mendenhall, who both finished in the top 15 in spite of not being drafted in countless leagues! So even though it is “impossible” to foresee injuries, we can realistically expect to have a lot of these rags-to-riches stories every single year in the NFL attributed to the physical dynamics of the league. The key element is to stay completely ready and one step ahead of everyone else.

KEY INSIGHT: Running backs are still THE MOST SIGNIFICANT position in fantasy football. To field the most dependable team, you have to have a robust stable of DUAL THREAT running backs that not only get a lot of rushing yards, but that also catch a lot of passes. At the same time, you FREQUENTLY have to be on the search for the fresh “star” waiver wire pickups. You can NEVER be too deep at the running back position.


Wide Receivers

Due to the dynamics of defenses, wide receivers are inclined to be one of the most sporadic positions on the field. This is my personal inclination, but I despise needing to rely on great output from the receivers on my fantasy team. I would much rather know I’m going to get sturdy production from my high level running backs, and then accompany that with “hidden gem” receivers that reliably get a lot of targets for their team, and frequently play out of the slot. I find next to nothing more demoralizing than drafting an elite WR, and then seeing every defense place 2 or 3 defenders on him, and subsequently destroying your fantasy production. It is much more complex to take away slot receivers, making them a A WHOLE LOT more reliable play from a consistency point of view. Take a look at what Wes Welker is executing so far this year! No defense can even slow him down and he has grown to be far and away the top PPR receiver to possess. The best part is, you can frequently draft a lot of these slot receivers in the middle rounds, immediately after you have already piled up your anchor running backs.

KEY INSIGHT: Slot receivers that are targeted 7-12 times per game are gold in PPR fantasy football. Draft high level pass catching RBs early, the prime slot receivers in the middle rounds, and a pair of quarterbacks in very good situations late and you are well on your way to fantasy football domination.



Tight End

The tight end has turn out to be an remarkably deep position in the past few years. You can get remarkably productive players late in drafts, as well as on the waiver wire each week based on the matchups, which makes it a significant misstep to draft a Tight End early. A healthy Antonio Gates was a rare exemption to the rule last year (2010), but it is still debatable if he will ever recover his top rated form ever again.


Defense

The team defense is a suitable position to benefit from a tag team. Effective production at this position is more related with confronting a lousy offense that turns the ball over and doesn’t score very much than having an outstanding defense. Once again, it is worthwhile to acquire 2 teams late in the draft that face a very weak combined schedule (and in a perfect world force a lot of turnovers!).


Kickers

As we described in the Value Based Drafting (VBD) section, it is often an optimal strategy to hold out and draft a kicker in the final round of your draft (If you draft one at all). You will often be able to find a productive kicker no matter what time of year. If your draft is a few weeks before the first regular season game, it may be much better to not draft a kicker at all (you will wait and add someone off waivers before your first game). That way you free up an added roster spot to take a chance on a backup RB who has the capability to be named the teams opening day starter that could instantaneously make your squad the team to conquer or would definitely present you some excellent trade bait. This strategy of holding out on a kicker also does away with the prospective concern that transpires when your kicker has a bye week. If you selected a top kicker, you may perhaps be hesitant to drop him and will opt to drop a different position on your team. But, if you are utilising a tag-team at a few positions, you will need to have all the other players for targeted matchups in the near future. If you have got a waiver wire kicker you will be less apprehensive about dropping him and adding a very similar counterpart. With a little homework you will be ın a position to acquire top 10 production at the kicker position (depending on matchups and weather conditions), erasing any need to go after a top kicker.

And finally, if you are interested in additional fantasy football strategy, please check out Fantasy Football Riches at http://www.fantasyfootballriches.com.

Interview with ZoneBlitz.com

ZoneBlitz: Who are a couple under the radar players set for breakout seasons in 2010 and who are a couple guys you think might be busts this year?

Fantasy Football Riches: A couple players flying under the radar that we are high on include: Ahmad Bradshaw, Jahvid Best, Arian Foster, Michael Crabtree, Hakeem Nicks, Malcom Floyd, Jabar Gaffney, and Mathew Stafford.

Some players we are avoiding include Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Cedric Benson, Steven Jackson


ZoneBlitz: Which rookies will you trust to be on your teams?

Fantasy Football Riches: We absolutely love the potential of Jahvid Best. I really like what the Lions have done with their offense and I think they are going to surprise a ton of people this year. Ryan Mathews is the one getting all the publicity right now, and rightly so, he is a stud. However, with his ADP so high we really don’t trust him at such a high cost (Currently drafted 16th overall on average).


ZoneBlitz: What are one or two tips less successful fantasy players should keep in mind?

Fantasy Football Riches: Make sure you fully understand your leagues scoring structure and it afffects the relative value of players (More about this our eBook here). Also - Focus the majority of your attention (and pre-draft studies) on your middle and late round draft picks. League championships are won in these later rounds, not just exclusively with your top picks. Grab stable players you can count on early, and capture a lot of burst potential late.



ZoneBlitz: Many say the traditional fantasy football strategy of drafting running backs first is over. Do you agree? Why or why not?

Fantasy Football Riches: Absolutely. The running back position has an incredible amount of turnover from year to year. That is a statistical fact and the numbers are austounding (More on this subject in our eBook, “The Expert Guide to Profitable Fantasy Football”) You can only count on a few of the top RB’s to consistently produce and after those first few guys are gone, it becomes a crapshoot. It becomes too expensive to spend multiple picks on early RBs. There is incredible value every year in mid-late round running backs. In fact, Fantasy Football Riches specializes on building an optimal draft strategy based on league structure (ie. scoring, number of teams, roster specs, etc) and your draft position with an emphasis on capturing enormous value with each and every draft pick that work together with your other picks to maximize expected value.


ZoneBlitz: With K. Warner retired and M. Leinart not looking good in the preseason, where is good value for Larry Fitzgerald?

Fantasy Football Riches: I am originally from Arizona and I am admittedly a HUGE Fitzgerald fan. I think he is the best overall WR in the game right now. With that said however, I am likely not drafting him on ANY of my teams this year. Why? Matt Leinart. I feel Leinart hurts his value ENORMOUSLY. Not only will Matt hurt Larry’s statistics, he is likely to keep getting him hurt. Ever since entering the league, Matt’s weak arm and poor decision making has constantly been hanging Larry out to dry. Leinart is better suited for “The Hills” than the NFL. Thankfully, he will be back in Southern California soon enough, as Derek Anderson may have already bumped him down the depth charts going into their 3rd preseason game.

ZoneBlitz: Bret Favre is back but the rest of the offense is in disarray. Where does he rank on your board and how are other Vikings affected?

Fantasy Football Riches: We are not on the Favre bandwagon this year either. I think his ankle injury is more of a concern than people realize. His incredible stats last year were an aberration and look for a case of regression to the mean this season. I have both Matthew Stafford and Alex Smith finishing the season with more fantasy points. Adrian Peterson always has incredible value and we are a fan of Percy Harvin however, especially in leagues that reward return yards.



ZoneBlitz: With several tight ends emerging, who are you targeting at that position and at what point in drafts?

Fantasy Football Riches: Tight ends are revolutionizing the way football is played and I believe it will ultimately change the way it is coached. More specifically, I think coaches will finally “give in” and “see the light” when it comes to 4th down conversions. The statistical analysis community has been calling for more 4th down conversion attempts for years, with rigorous mathematical proof to back them up. However, NFL coaches have been slow to implement these findings (presumably due to a lack of job security). But now with these freak, super-athlete tight ends, coaches have an opportunity to create enormous mismatches specifically for these key 4th down plays. Look for Bill Belichick and the Pats to lead the trend. Bill has already proved willing to buck conventional wisdom (recall 4th and 2 vs Indy) and guess what… they drafted not one, but TWO potential game breaking tight ends in this year’s draft.

From a fantasy perspective, the specific player I really like this year is Oakland’s Zach Miller. A fellow Arizona State Sun Devil, Zach is primed for a breakout season now that he has a stable QB. He is a steal late in drafts this year.



ZoneBlitz: Have you seen anything surprising in early drafts you’ve been monitoring?

Fantasy Football Riches: I am shocked Arian Foster is still being drafted so late. This guy is the clear #1 on a potent offense. Draft him! Visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com for more advanced strategy and learn how to build an optimal fantasy draft this year!

Fantasy Football Theory: Sleepers to Build Around

What if you knew you could get a sleeper RB in the 6th or 7th round that would vastly outperform his draft position and produce comparable to most 2nd round RB’s. It would make sense to structure your draft with a plan centered on this player. What if also, you identified an underrated Quarterback that you could draft in the 7th-10th rounds that would also produce similar numbers to the top round QB’s? You would now know the best use of your top draft picks in attempt to compile the most dominate combination of value players.

To do this, it all starts by identifying key “sleeper” players you will target in the middle rounds of your draft. After you identify these players, only then do you fill in your top players to target in the beginning of the draft. You will know which positions you can “wait” for since you have a strong and productive player up your sleeve at that position.

That is what Fantasy Football Riches does. We have identified the key players that will show up on MANY championship fantasy teams; And these are not players being drafted in the first few rounds! Our TARGET LIST is comprised of mid-round draft picks that will vastly out-perform their ADP and are loaded with burst-potential to become top 10 players at their position.

Therefore – We know going into a fantasy draft, which players are the most beneficial to draft with our top picks to combine with our sleeper selections. This is also very dependent on your draft position. A team drafting from the #2 slot will have a much different optimal draft plan than a team in the #9 slot.

For more information on optimal draft structure for 2010 visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com today!

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks: Where is the Value?

This is unquestionably a very strong year for Quarterbacks. The position is very deep, with a lot of big names and star power at the top. However, because of the publicity and notoriety the top QB’s get, they will often be overvalued from a fantasy perspective. You can read much more about this theory and the statistical analysis behind this in the recently released eBook, The Expert Guide to Profitable Fantasy Football available at www.FantasyFootballRiches.com.

Here are my top 10 Quarterbacks this year in terms of point totals, and then we will discuss who presents value for your fantasy team, and who you will likely have to overpay for.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Peyton Manning
3. Drew Brees
4. Tom Brady
5. Tony Romo
6. Matt Schaub
7. Jay Cutler
8. Carson Palmer
9. Kevin Kolb
10. Phillip Rivers

(A detailed breakdown of each players expected statistics is available to RED ZONE subscribers at www.FantasyFootballRiches.com)

It will be tempting to take a top QB this year, but I would recommend against it. Rodgers, Manning, and Brees will likely all have strong seasons, but you will have to pay a high price to get them (in the form of high draft picks).

Three guys in particular stand out at the tail end of the top 10: Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, and Kevin Kolb. All three present terrific value in fantasy leagues because you can draft them in the middle rounds (7-10). This allows you to target the best WR and RB talent at the top of the draft, while other managers are reaching for the big-name QB. At the end of the year, the production from these mid round QB’s will likely be very similar to those of the big-names (so long as everyone stays healthy). However, your top WR and RB’s are likely to VASTLY outperform their second and third tier WR and RB’s. That is how consistent fantasy football championships are won - Finding value in the draft at each individual position.

For more information on how to construct an optimal draft this year by finding PHENOMENAL value at each position, visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com ASAP!

Offensive Line: Don't Forget About the Big Guys!

There might not be anything more important to the success of a running back than his offensive line. The RB always gets the credit, but the line is often times the true reason for the success. Therefore, opportunities exist to find sleeper RB’s for your fantasy team that currently do not have a “big” name, but are set to run behind a quality O-line.

In attempt to identify a few key candidates, here were the top 5 best offensive lines in football last season (as determined by Football Outsiders innovative statistic “Adjusted Line Yards” you can find here)

1. Miami

2. New Orleans

3. Dallas

4. Baltimore

5. New England

In addition, when looking at it from the opposite direction, it is very difficult for a running back to succeed behind a poor offensive line. Here were the bottom 5 O-lines from the past season:

28. St. Louis

29. Detroit

30. Kansas City

31. Tampa Bay

32. San Francisco

To transition these statistics from last season into predictions for this season is challenging however since teams area able to add/subtract players from year to year. For instance, although the 49ers ranked at the bottom of this statistic last year, they added 2 first round offensive lineman, who by all accounts will be able to step in and contribute immediately. This statistic also does not account for RBs who contribute in the passing game. For instance, while Detroit and Kansas City statistically do not run the ball that well, their running backs this season (Jahvid Best and Jamaal Charles) are very good receivers out of the backfield which therefore increases their fantasy value.

For a detailed breakdown on each NFL offensive line going into the season as well as the sleeper RB’s that will be running behind them visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com and subscribe to the RED ZONE.

The Importance of ADP in Fantasy Football DOMINATION!

The fantasy football pick of the year in 2009? Ray Rice. Why does he get the pick of the year over Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson or anyone else? ADP (Average Draft Position). Rice was available in most leagues last year in about the 6th or 7th round and maybe even later. That is what we call a steal; 1st round production from a mid-round selection. More importantly, that is what consistent dominance in fantasy football requires, being able to identify where the value lies in your upcoming drafts. Matt Schaub was also drafted around the 6th round last year. It is no surprise that an astounding number of teams that won championships last year had these two players on it. The question becomes, who are the KEY PLAYERS this season, currently being drafted in the middle rounds.

All the signs pointed to Rice having a monster season last year. There are similar signs right now for certain other “under-the-radar” players. You need these players on your team. Make ALL your draft picks count for your team and give yourself the best chance at winning the title. Who will be this year’s Ray Rice? We have a list of 5 players, currently being drafted in the 5th-12th rounds that will ENORMOUSLY outperform their draft position. One of them is likely to be the Ray Rice of this season and another, the Matt Schaub. You need to get these guys on your roster. The burst-potential is enormous this year and you should structure your team in order to best take advantage of it. Fantasy Football Riches will show you how. Profit this year from fantasy football.

Visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com right now for more information!

Technical Analysis: NFL Point Spreads

The third and final part of our analysis is the technical side. Fist was Schedule Analysis, followed by Fundamental Analysis. This includes facets of behavioral economics in regards to public perception and biases. Line movement and percentages play a significant role in this type of analysis as well.

"Investors and researchers have disputed the efficient-market hypothesis both empirically and theoretically. Behavioral economists attribute the imperfections in financial markets to a combination of cognitive biases such as overconfidence, overreaction, representative bias, information bias, and various other predictable human errors in reasoning and information processing. These errors in reasoning lead most investors to avoid value stocks and buy growth stocks at expensive prices, which allow those who reason correctly to profit from bargains in neglected value stocks and the overreacted selling of growth stocks."

Does this have an application to NFL football? Absolutely.

The spreads of an NFL game are similar to the price of the stock. Many variables are considered by the lines-makers when setting a line, and public perception is a very big factor. People have favorite teams they like to bet on. A team coming off a great performance on Monday Night Football the previous week, for instance, will likely be a fashionable bet the next week. However, this is a flawed and potentially dangerous line of thinking.

"Speculative economic bubbles are an obvious anomaly, in that the market often appears to be driven by buyers operating on irrational exuberance, who take little notice of underlying value. These bubbles are typically followed by an overreaction of frantic selling, allowing shrewd investors to buy stocks at bargain prices. Rational investors have difficulty profiting by shorting irrational bubbles because, as John Maynard Keynes commented, "Markets can remain irrational far longer than you or I can remain solvent” Sudden market crashes as happened on Black Monday in 1987 are mysterious from the perspective of efficient markets, but allowed as a rare statistical event under the Weak-form of EMH."

The lines makers know who the favorite pubic teams are. Therefore, there will always be a “premium” charged to those teams. The value lies in the teams that the majority of people are overreacting from a bad performance.

For more information visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com and subscribe to the RED ZONE

NFL Football: Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial statements and health, its management and competitive advantages, and its competitors and markets. When applied to NFL football, it focuses on the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of a team (example: Run Defense and Passing Efficiency). It also takes into consideration the health of the team from a physical standpoint, the coaching staff, and certain competitive advantages against specific opponents.

This is the X’s and O’s broken down to identify the exploitable situations. For example, one of the most important, yet largely ignored pieces of information is the injury status of lineman. The Quarterbacks, Running backs, and Receivers get all the publicity, but the linemen largely determine the overall success of a football team. An injury to a key offensive tackle can absolutely cripple an entire offense if the backup is sub-par (which is often the case). The defensive lineman can be equally important to a team. For instance, in the 3-4 defensive schemes, a large, space-eating nose tackle is imperative. If a team is missing this particular player and the backup is substantially worse, a trickledown effect will take place causing enormous problems for this defense.

Fantasy Football Riches attempts to keep a detailed view into each team from a fundamental analysis standpoint. Everything from the injury reports for key “under-the-radar” players, to potential competitive advantages over specific opponents down the road. Here is an example for the Arizona Cardinals going into the season.

Assessment:

Offense (Run): Moving to a significantly more run-heavy offense. Beanie Wells coming in strong for training camp and the O-Line is taking steps in the right direction. Questionable depth on the line however.

Offense (Pass): Huge question is Matt Leinart. Offense not running many 4-wide sets in training camp may be a sign of things to come. WR’s still very strong however lead by Fitzgerald alongside Steve Breston and Early Doucet.

Defense (Run): 3-4 Hybrid system. Should be strong when DT Dan Williams and LB Hayes are healthy. Might struggle without them.

Defense (Pass): Solid DB’s. Adrian Wilson, DRC, Kerry Rhodes, etc = strong potential secondary. Should have a good overall defense when the run stoppers are healthy.


TidBits (Things to watch, Considerations, etc)

• *KEY* Going to a much more "run-first" style
• Great Veteran Leadership at key positions (except QB)
• Leinart’s competence?
• How will all the offseason losses/new additions pan out: Jerry Porter/Kerry Rhodes have anything left?
• Strong DB’s
• DT Dan Williams: Whisenhunt now has the massive nose tackle that he has really needed in order to employ a true 3-4 scheme in Arizona
• Loss of LB Hayes important for interior run stop. Big concer
• Keep an eye on Beanie Wells (RB) and Early Doucet (WR) this season.
• Offense was overvalued last year (O/U: 5-11): Even more Defense this year?
• Soft early schedule: Beware of public perception. Might struggle ATS early, then go on a tear mid-season when 3-4 scheme and Leinart start clicking or are undervalued

For a detailed report like this on every NFL team visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com

NFL Schedule Analysis: Handicapping the League

NFL Schedule Analysis - Handicapping the League

by Michael Lambourne

August 10, 2010

www.FantasyFootballRiches.com

There are several things to look for when analyzing a team schedule. Here is a list of important considerations:

1. Revenge Game or Opponent Revenge Game

Since there is so much pride in the game of football in addition to the parity of the NFL, “revenge” becomes an important factor. This is especially present in inter-division battles. If one team has had success recently against another team, you can be assured there is a certain degree of revenge on the mind of the struggling team.

2. West Coast Team Traveling East (-Body Clock)

West coast teams traveling east for an early start game is also a very important consideration. Be careful of these situations, as the “body clock” and game day routine of all the players on the traveling team will be significantly thrown off.

3. Multiple Road Games in Consecutive Weeks

A long stretch of games on the road and a lot of travel can begin to have an impact on performance. Look to fade a team at the end of a brutal travel schedule in consecutive weeks. Example: 5 road games in 7 weeks.

4. +Days to Prepare (Following Bye or Thu/Sat Game)

Teams coming off a bye have a big advantage in preparation and rest time. Even just an extra couple days to rest and prepare leads to a significant advantage. Make sure you know if a team has an extra couple of days to prepare after playing either a Thursday or Saturday game late in the season.

5. -Days to Prepare (Following MNF the Previous Week)

Extra preparation time is always a good thing, but less days to prepare is certainly a bad thing. Beware of teams coming off a Monday night game the previous week. They had a short week, especially if the game was on the road.

6. Week Before or After Big Division Rivalry Game

No matter how much coaches and players say they don’t look ahead to big games, all teams do. The division games are so important in the NFL standings that it is often the case that teams save the best game plans and best effort for the most important division games. Therefore, the week before a big game is a prime spot for a letdown. Also take not of teams coming off a very emotional game. It can often create a hangover effect the following week.

7. Coaching Changes with Immediate Inside Info

Coaching changes are rampant in the NFL. There is always a lot of turnover in coaching staffs from year to year. This can be very important information if a certain assistant coach has immediate inside information about a team he was with the previous year, but now is playing against.

"RED ZONE" Exclusive & Innovative Research and Information Club on Advanced Fantasy Football Strategy and NFL Handicapping – Available only at www.FantasyFootballRiches.com

This preseason preparation is the just the beginning of our analysis. The next steps, and upcoming blogs, will contain the information critical to the fundamental analysis used to analyze individual match-ups. Then, we will delve into the behavioral economic principles used to gauge public perception of the NFL marketplace which is essential to identifying where the true value lies.

Here is an example of the Arizona Cardinals upcoming schedule. Our members get an annotated schedule likes this for every NFL team. Stay tuned – Much more useful info to come!

ARIZONA Cardinals (9-7 ATS) (11-5 O/U)
WK	DATE	OPPONENT	TIME (ET)
1	Sun, Sep 12	at St. Louis	4:15 PM	ORR
2	Sun, Sep 19	at Atlanta	1:00 PM	-bc
3	Sun, Sep 26	Oakland	4:15 PM
4	Sun, Oct 3	at San Diego	4:15 PM	3r4
5	Sun, Oct 10	New Orleans	4:05 PM	R
6
7	Sun, Oct 24	at Seattle	4:05 PM	off bye, ORR
8	Sun, Oct 31	Tampa Bay	4:15 PM
9	Sun, Nov 7	at Minnesota	1:00 PM	OR
10	Sun, Nov 14	Seattle	4:15 PM	ORRR?
11	Sun, Nov 21	at Kansas City	1:00 PM
12	Mon, Nov 29	San Francisco	8:30 PM	RR
13	Sun, Dec 5	St. Louis	4:15 PM	-day, ORRR?
14	Sun, Dec 12	Denver	4:15 PM
15	Sun, Dec 19	at Carolina	1:00 PM	-bc
16	Sat, Dec 25	Dallas	7:30 PM
17	Sun, Jan 2	at San Francisco	4:15 PM	+day, RRR?

KEY:

R = Revenge Game

RR = Double Revenge Game

OR = Opponent Revenge Game

-day = Short Week to Prepare

+day = Extra Time to Prepare

3r4 = 3rd Road Game in 4 Weeks

-bc = Traveling East for Early Start